Is China's national debt higher than the US?
The level of debt in China
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
China has raised too much debt for the amount of demand there is in its economy - an imbalance that could get worse before it gets better. The housing market has been the linchpin of Chinese growth. Its success drove local government revenues.
Consequences of Owing Debt to the Chinese
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%. The United States' government's spending exceeds its income most years, and the US has not had a budget surplus since 2001.
The IMF's Fiscal Monitor , opens new tab, released on Oct. 2, shows that the U.S.'s and China's total non-financial public and private debt-to-GDP rates have converged at about 270% of GDP, with the U.S. making up 30% of the global total and China 20%.
Cities and provinces across the country have accumulated a massive amount of hidden debt following years of unchecked borrowing and spending. The International Monetary Fund and Wall Street banks estimate that the total outstanding off-balance-sheet government debt is around $7 trillion to $11 trillion.
China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high in 2023 despite the slow pace of borrowing, reflecting the economy's weakening growth, a new report from a state-backed think tank shows.
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.
What happens if China dumps all US Treasuries?
If China “dumped” USA treasuries, they would take a serious monetary loss. The price of the treasuries would drop, effective raising the return for those who bought the bonds.
Investors in Japan and China hold significant shares of U.S. public debt. Together, as of September 2022, they accounted for nearly $2 trillion, or about 8 percent of DHBP. While China's holdings of U.S. debt have declined over the past decade, Japan has slightly increased their purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
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China's foreign debt in currencies other than the yuan includes private sector firms' borrowing from foreign banks, trade-related credit to Chinese firms from foreign trading partners and debt securities issued by Chinese state-owned and private sector firms to foreign investors.
Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
Federal Borrowing
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.
Who owns this debt? The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments.
The $34 trillion gross federal debt equals debt held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself. Learn more about different ways to measure our national debt.
Why is the US debt so high?
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023. But even that eye-popping figure does not capture the uncomfortable fact that much of it was borrowed to buy assets that no longer yield enough income to repay the debt.
The largest holder of U.S. debt is the U.S government. Which agencies own the most Treasury notes, bills, and bonds? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury publishes this information in its monthly Treasury statement.
A former US official explains the mystery. China is not dumping its stockpile of US bonds, Brad Setser, a former Treasury official, wrote. A large part of China's holdings is not accounted for in official US data, he said. While it has sold some Treasurys, Beijing has bought up US debt in the form of agency bonds.
One theory: “They have to sell these Treasurys to help support the yuan,” he said. Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value.
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