How bad is China's debt?
Public sector debt was RMB 30.3 trillion (53.2% of GDP) while private sector debt (including both household and non-financial corporate sector) amounted to RMB 103.5 trillion (181.9% of GDP).
Consequences of Owing Debt to the Chinese
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
Of the total 7.6 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 868.9 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.
Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.
As of Oct. 2022, China owns $769.6 billion of the total $7,565 billion U.S. national debt.
Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
Analysts estimate that two-thirds of corporate debt is in the hands of China's sprawling state-owned enterprises, many of which are unprofitable and inefficient.
Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
---|---|
Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
China | $859,400,000,000 |
United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
Can China call in U.S. debt?
Nations like China typically hold US debt in the form of various US Treasury debt, including bonds and other notes. None of these instruments allow debt holders to simply demand repayment…you get the terms and conditions associated with the bond and there's little flexibility to “calling in all of their debts”.
China's debt has risen dramatically in the past decade, largely the result of credit fed to state-owned enterprises in the wake of the global financial crisis.
![How bad is China's debt? (2024)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XAcv7AOizVI/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEcCNAFEJQDSFXyq4qpAw4IARUAAIhCGAFwAcABBg==&rs=AOn4CLCSrcrV4Z6ZNJisdX2MqygkRErMng)
Public debt in Russia averaged 15.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022, below the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe. Public debt in Russia was 18.9% of GDP in 2022. For more public debt information, visit our dedicated page.
Years of elevated budget deficits, exacerbated by massive federal spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, have taken the debt to historic levels: totaling more than $26 trillion in 2023, U.S. federal government debt is now at its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since World War II.
Russia National Government Debt reached 287.8 USD bn in Jan 2024, compared with 285.4 USD bn in the previous month. Russia National Government Debt data is updated monthly, available from May 2009 to Jan 2024. The data reached an all-time high of 384.2 USD bn in Jun 2022 and a record low of 86.1 USD bn in May 2009.
Country | Economy |
---|---|
United States | $25.347 trillion |
China | $19.91 trillion |
Japan | $5.396 trillion |
Germany | $4.55 trillion |
The researchers also cited data reported by lenders to the Switzerland-headquartered Bank of International Settlements, which they said indicates developing country borrowers owe Chinese lenders at least $1.1 trillion and up to $1.5 trillion as of 2021.
Who owns China debt? Most of China's local government debt, one of the most regular issuers of domestic debt, is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China's local governments have relied on off balance sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).
As a result, if the United States and other countries were to stop trading with China, it would disrupt global supply chains and cause economic disruptions in many countries.
The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments. These two groups account for 30 percent of the debt.
Where does China borrow money from?
A major lender abroad, China is facing a debt bomb at home: trillions of dollars owed by local governments, their financial affiliates, and real estate developers.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
China was expected to experience a rip-roaring recovery after it lifted strict COVID-19 restrictions. But almost a year after the measures ended, the Chinese economy seems to be stumbling. Prices have fallen. Exports and imports have plummeted.
Li Daokui has estimated that local Chinese authorities had by 2020 run up a much bigger tally of debt than previously realized, at some 90 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion). Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations.
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
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